VESTNIK
Bashkirskogo universiteta

RUSSIAN
ISSN 1998-4812

Archive | Volume 20, 2015, No. 3.

INFORMATION SUPPORT OF POPULATION MODELING

Vestnik Bashkirskogo Universiteta. 2015. Vol. 20. No. 3. Pp. 790-794.
Spivak S. I.
Bashkir State University
32 Zaki Validi St., 450076 Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia.
Salakhov I. R.
Bashkir State University
32 Zaki Validi St., 450076 Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia.
Email: salah-off@mail.ru
Kantor O. G.
Institute for Social and Economic Research
71 Oktyabrya Ave., 450054 Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russia.

Abstract

In this article, an approach to the organization of information management support for modeling and forecasting of the Russian Federation population is proposed, which allows the researcher to obtain adequate point forecast estimates, interval forecast estimates and assess the impact of exposure to object of management. The developed complex software capable to produce at relatively low use of hardware and time resources hundreds of millions iterations of required solutions search. As a result, the researcher gets the information set, which containing a wide list of the necessary data, analyzing which can solve tasks of forecasting, modeling, identification, decision-making, management, and open new lines of research of this issue. The software consists of tool set of mathematical modeling and numerical algorithms (Runge-Kutta method, Simpson's rule and other). In this article, we propose an approach to constructing models of system dynamics based on the use of econometric modeling methods, approximate and numerical methods of integration and series of numerical experiments, which would allow the researcher to carry out a phased process of adjusting the model in terms of an adequate description of experimental data.

Keywords

  • • system dynamics
  • • management of social and economic systems
  • • point and interval forecast estimates

References

  1. Forrester, Dzh. Dinamika razvitiya goroda [Dynamics of city development] / Dzh. Forrester. Moscow: Progress, 1974.
  2. Spivak S. I., Kantor O. G., Salakhov I. R. Zhurnal Srednevolzhskogo matematicheskogo obshchestva. 2011. Vol. 13. No. 3.
  3. Spivak S. I., Kantor O. G., Salakhov I. R. Statistika. Modelirovanie. Optimizatsiya. Chelyabinsk: Izdatel'skii tsentr YuUrGU, 2011.
  4. Kantor O. G., Salahov I. R. Estimation of Model Parameters / Book of Abstract 15th GAMM-IMACS International Symposium on Scientific Computing, Computer Arithmetics and Verified Numerics SCAN’2012. Novosibirsk, September 23–29, 2012. Institute of Computantional Technologies, Novosibirsk, 2012. Pp. 151–152.